A decade after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and caused chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two articles that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed here and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has possesses something to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
